Browsing by Author "Sumption, K"

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Epidemiological patterns of foot-and-mouth disease worldwide
(Transboundary and emerging diseases) Rweyemamu, M; Roeder, P; Mackay, D; Sumption, K; Brownlie, J; Leforban, Y; Valarcher, J.-F; Knowles, N. J; Saraiva, V
Epidemiological patterns of foot-and-mouth disease worldwide
(Transboundary and emerging diseases, 2008-04) Rweyemamu, M; Roeder, P; Mackay, D; Sumption, K; Brownlie, J; Leforban, Y; Valarcher, J.-F; Knowles, N. J; Saraiva, V
Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) is a clinical syndrome in animals due to FMD virus that exists in seven serotypes, whereby recovery from one sero-type does not confer immunity against the other six. So when considering intervention strategies in endemic settings, it is important to take account of the characteris- tics of the different serotypes in different ecological systems. FMD serotypes are not uniformly distributed in the regions of the world where the disease still occurs. For example, the cumulative incidence of FMD serotypes show that six of the seven serotypes of FMD (O, A, C, SAT-1, SAT-2, SAT-3) have occurred in Africa, while Asia contends with four sero-types (O, A, C, Asia-1), and South America with only three (O, A, C). Periodically there have been incur- sions of Types SAT-1 and SAT-2 from Africa into the Middle East. This paper describes the global dynamics for the seven sero-types and attempts to define FMD epidemiological clusters in the different regions of the world. These have been described on a continent by continent basis. The review has reaffirmed that the movement of infected animals is the most important factor in the spread of FMD within the endemically infected regions. It also shows that the eco-system based approach for defining the epidemiolo- gical patterns of FMD in endemic, which was originally described in South America, can apply readily to other parts of the world. It is proposed that any coordinated regional or global strategy for FMD con- trol should be based on a sound epidemiological assessment of the incidence and distribution of FMD, identifying risk sources as either primary or second- ary endemic eco-systems.
Incidence and distribution of Foot-and-mouth disease in Asia, Africa and South America; combining expert opinion, official disease information and livestock populations to assist risk assessment
(Blackwell Verlag) Sumption, K; Rweyemamu, M; Wint, W
Incidence and distribution of Foot-and-mouth disease in Asia, Africa and South America; combining expert opinion, official disease information and livestock populations to assist risk assessment
(Blackwell Verlag, 2008) Sumption, K; Rweyemamu, M; Wint, W
Risk assessment procedures frequently require quantitative data on the preva- lence of the disease in question. Although most countries are members of the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), the importance attached to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) reporting or surveillance for infection varies enormously between infected countries. There is a general consensus that FMD outbreaks in endemic countries are greatly under-reported, to a degree related either to the economic or the political development level of the country. This exploratory study was first undertaken by FAO, but thereafter extended and reviewed by the working group on FMD risk co-ordinated by the Euro- pean Food Safety Authority (EFSA). The paper attempts to overcome the lack of reporting through using expert opinion to extrapolate incidence indices from countries considered to have ‘representative’ levels of FMD. These were combined with livestock density distributions to provide maps of prevalence indices, which were found to be highest in China (pigs), India (cattle), the Near East (small ruminants) and the Sahel (small ruminants and cattle). Similar patterns were found when weighted expert rankings of a range of additional ranked disease parameters were also produced, and then combined with susceptible animal densities to produce a weighted multi-species density. Results suggest that the methods can provide useful information at both national and sub-national resolution, even for countries for which quantitative FMD data is currently unavailable: two of the regions identified provide little or no data on a regular basis to the OIE and therefore may be overlooked if the level of officially reported FMD is only used. As the estimated prevalences are based on recent disease history and expert opinion, they are most likely to be inaccurate where FMD incursions are infrequent as a result of the preventive measures and geographical and trade isolation. This study, therefore, highlights the need for specific detailed country risk assessments where livestock trade is under consideration. Validating the approach including ground truthing, will require collaboration between a number of agencies and institutions, in critical countries, particularly those with high disease burdens that share borders or trade livestock with currently FMD-free nations.
Planning for the progressive control of foot-and-mouth disease worldwide
(Blackwell Verlag) Rweyemamu, M; Roede, P; MacKay, D; Sumption, K; Brownlie, J; Leforban, Y