An empirical analysis exploring relationship Between macroeconomic variables and stock Market return: A study of Dar es Salaam stock exchange (DSE)
No Thumbnail Available
Date
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Mzumbe University
Abstract
Description
A Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for Award of
the Degree of (Masters of Science in Accountancy and Finance) of Mzumbe
University
This research explores the relationship between stock market return and macroeconomic variables in Dar es Salaam Stock exchange, the only emerging stock exchange market in Tanzania. The observation of 144 months from 2002 to 2013 scientifically analyzed using econometric and financial models taking into account backup of empirical results from literature review of previous scholars. Augmented Dicker Fuller and Phillip Peron test utilized to test for unit root as perquisite for time series data, followed by Granger causality test to examine cause effect relationship between variables. Vector autoregressive model used to examine the significance of relationship between return and macroeconomic variables, a part from determining the sign and magnitude of relation-effect therein. The result shows that DSEI respond positively to the inflation rate and exchange rate while negatively to money supply and interest rate. VAR revealed significant effect on exchange rate, money supply and interest rate, contrary to weak effect related to the inflation rate variables. Other study variables are industrial production, reserve, tax threshold and GDP. The outcome of this thesis discovered potential need to focus on impact of macroeconomic variables in designing monetary and fiscal policy of the country’s economy, since; the capital market does respond quickly to the arrival of new information.
This research explores the relationship between stock market return and macroeconomic variables in Dar es Salaam Stock exchange, the only emerging stock exchange market in Tanzania. The observation of 144 months from 2002 to 2013 scientifically analyzed using econometric and financial models taking into account backup of empirical results from literature review of previous scholars. Augmented Dicker Fuller and Phillip Peron test utilized to test for unit root as perquisite for time series data, followed by Granger causality test to examine cause effect relationship between variables. Vector autoregressive model used to examine the significance of relationship between return and macroeconomic variables, a part from determining the sign and magnitude of relation-effect therein. The result shows that DSEI respond positively to the inflation rate and exchange rate while negatively to money supply and interest rate. VAR revealed significant effect on exchange rate, money supply and interest rate, contrary to weak effect related to the inflation rate variables. Other study variables are industrial production, reserve, tax threshold and GDP. The outcome of this thesis discovered potential need to focus on impact of macroeconomic variables in designing monetary and fiscal policy of the country’s economy, since; the capital market does respond quickly to the arrival of new information.
Keywords
macroeconomic variables, stock Market return: