Tanzania Manufacturing Export and Growth: A Cointegration Approach
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University of Dar Es Salaam
Abstract
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This paper examines the long run relationship between exports and growth of Tanzania manufacturing sector.
It does so by estimating an endogenous growth model on time series data from 1961 till 2010. The paper also
estimates the short -term dynamic behaviour of Tanzania's growth function of manufacturing value added via
the error correction model. The results suggest a long run relationship between exports and growth. Analysis of
aggregate statistics of trends in performance of Tanzania manufacturing suggest that manufactured exports
have grown faster than growth in recent years due to the fragmentation and internationalization of industrial
activity. Furthermore the paper shows that the error correction term is correctly signed and statistically
significant. Tanzania has experienced a positive growth ranging at 5 percent annually for the last decade from
2000s.
Keywords
Exports, Growth, Cointegration Analysis