Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 2017; 5:139-151
This study aims to evaluate the performance of the individual Regional Climate
Models (RCMs) used in Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling
Experiment (CORDEX) and the ensemble average of the four RCMs to feign
the characteristics of the rainfall pattern for the Mbarali River catchment in
Rufiji Basin for the period of 1979 to 2005. Statistical analysis for model performance
such as Root mean square error, Mean error, Pearson correlation
coefficient, Mean, Median, standard deviation and trend analysis are used. In
addition to the statistical measure of model performance, the models are tested
on their ability to capture the observed annual cycles and interannual variability
of rainfall. Results indicated that the RCMs from the CORDEX indicated a
better performance to reproduce the rainfall characteristics over Mbarali River
catchment in Rufiji Basin. They reproduced fairly the Era Interim annual
cycle and inter-annual variability of rainfall. The ensemble average performed
better than individual models in representing rainfall over Mbarali River catchment
in Rufiji Basin. These suggest that rainfall simulation from the ensemble
average will be used for the assessment of the hydrological impact studies
over Mbarali River catchment in Rufiji Basin.
Future Climate for Africa UMFULA Project,
with the financial support from the UK Natural Environment Research
Council (NERC), grant ref. No: NE/M020037/1, and the UK Government’s Department
for International Development (DfID)