Journal Article
The Kilombero wetland in Tanzania is affected by advancing land use and land cover
changes (LULCC), where we observe a conflict between development interests and the necessity of
conservation measures to maintain the functionalities of the ecosystem. Thus, assessing patterns
of LULCC is crucial to foresee potential future developments and to develop sustainable future
management strategies. In this study, we use a multi-method scenario approach to assess the
spatial implications and underlying driving forces of potential change by (1) developing a System
Dynamics Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) to disentangle the underlying socio-economic and ecologic
driving forces, (2) deriving a qualitative business-as-usual (BAU) and a conservation scenario from
participatory narratives elaborated during a stakeholder workshop, and (3) quantifying the spatial
implications of these scenarios with the Land Change Modeler (LCM). Results indicate that under the
BAU assumption only 37% of the natural vegetation is expected to persist until 2030 in the wetland.
In contrast, strict enforcement of protected areas (conservation scenario) halts further conversion of
the wetland. However, both scenarios pinpoint considerable expansions of cropland in the western
highlands with potentially serious impacts on catchment-wide hydrological processes. The produced
qualitative and quantitative outputs reveal hotspots of possible future change and starting points for
advisable further research and management interventions.