Journal Article
Coffee is the most traded commodity in the world. In Tanzania, Coffee is the second largest traditional
commodity. However, several climate change studies have predicted that coffee production will be reduced as a
result of climate change. Therefore, the study aimed to assess the impact of current climate change on Tanzania’s
Arabica coffee production and determine the most significant climatic variables, which influence coffee
production in the respective regions. Global interpolated climatic database (Worldclim dataset) and official
historical coffee production data from Tanzania Coffee Board for a period of 40 years (1970-2018) were used.
Climatic parameters and coffee production were compared through descriptive statistics, correlation analysis,
and multiple regressions. The Mann-Kendall method was used to detect significant trends in climatic data. The
minimum temperature has been increasing at a higher rate than the maximum temperature in the Northern and
Southern Highlands zones. A 1 °C increase in minimum temperature (Tmin) during short rains and annual mean
temperature (Tmean) resulted in a significant coffee production decrease (-6,041 and -4,450 tons) in Kilimanjaro
and Arusha regions respectively. In the Southern Highlands zone coffee production positively correlated with
temperature. A significant reduction in coffee production due to a decline in long rains was also observed in the
Kilimanjaro region. The warming and drought trends are likely to continue with significant implications on
coffee production and this, calls for the development of suitable adaptation strategies to sustain production. Such
strategies may include, re-adapting the coffee agronomic practices to climate change, improving water and
nutrient use efficiency in coffee trees, and developing genetically improved coffee cultivars that will tolerate the
impact of climate change
TaCRI