t A large dam is planned at Stiegler’s Gorge in Tanzania. The change in the Rufiji River flood pattern will affect downstream ecosystems. This paper concentrates on the highly productive floodplain lakes that play a vital role in local livelihoods. A participatory monitoring system with village-based observers collected water level, rainfall, fisheries and food data from 2001 to 2011. Water balances of the lakes show dependence on the Rufiji River flood, with varying vulnerability. With the dam design flood of 2500 m3 s -1, lakes with a high threshold and small catchment will dry out quickly. Lakes with a lower threshold and substantial catchment are more robust but may still dry out during prolonged local drought. Analysis of rainfall (1923–2012) indicates a recent decrease. The data were analysed through feedback workshops with local observers, government technical staff and researchers. Through this collaborative approach, local capacity in preparing for the post-dam future was enhanced.