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Rainfall variability and socio‑economic constraints on livestock production in the Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania

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dc.creator Leweri, Cecilia
dc.creator Msuha, Maurus
dc.creator Treydte, Anna
dc.date 2022-09-01T07:47:19Z
dc.date 2022-09-01T07:47:19Z
dc.date 2021-01-12
dc.date.accessioned 2022-10-25T09:20:51Z
dc.date.available 2022-10-25T09:20:51Z
dc.identifier https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-020-04111-0
dc.identifier https://dspace.nm-aist.ac.tz/handle/20.500.12479/1559
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/95292
dc.description This research article was published by Springer Nature Switzerland AG., 2021
dc.description Rainfall variability is of great importance in East Africa, where small-scale farmers and pastoralists dominate. Their livestock production activities are heavily dependent on rainfall. We assessed pastoralist perceptions on climate change, particularly rainfall variability, its impact on livestock production, and the adaptive capacity of pastoralists in the Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA), Tanzania. We combined 241 household interviews and information from 52 participants of Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) with archived data from the Ngorongoro Conservation Area Authority (NCAA). We found that most (71%) pastoralists were aware of general climate change impacts, rainfall variability, and impacts of extreme events on their livestock. Most (> 75%) respondents perceived erratic and reduced amounts of rainfall, prolonged and frequent periods of drought as the main climate change challenges. Mean annual rainfall accounted for only 46% (R2), (p = 0.076) and 32% (R2), (p = 0.22) of cattle, and sheep and goat population variability, respectively. Unexpectedly, cattle losses intensified by 10% when herd size increased (p < 0.001) and by 98% (p = 0.049) when mobility increased, implying that increasing herd sizes and mobility do not cushion households against climate change shocks. Our study highlights the need to enhance adaptive capacity of the pastoralist communities through interventions that proactively reduce vulnerability. We recommend that future research should address the profitability of pastoral cattle production under changing environmental conditions.
dc.format application/pdf
dc.language en
dc.publisher Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
dc.subject Climate variability
dc.subject Pastoralist perceptions
dc.subject Rangelands
dc.subject Adaptive capacity
dc.title Rainfall variability and socio‑economic constraints on livestock production in the Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania
dc.type Article


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