Dissertation (MA Economics)
Economic growing nation has potentials for fulfilling the needs of her population.
Currently, the world is working towards achieving the Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs) by the year 2030. It is established that 26.4% of the Tanzania
population lives in poverty. This study assessed the determinants of economic
growth in Tanzania for the period of 1970 - 2018. Both short run and long run
economic determinants were estimated in this study. The Gross Domestic Product
was treated as dependent variable whereas; Foreign Direct Investment - net inflow,
merchandised export, exchange rate and inflation as independent variables by
applying time series analysis. The current study employed both Augmented Dickey
Fuller test and Zivot- Andrews test to scrutinize the behavior of each variable. It was
observed that the variables were stationary. The Johansen co-integration test and
Vector Error Correction Model were used to analyze the data from 1970 - 2018.
Empirical findings confirm that there was long-run relationship with speed of
adjustment of 65%. The findings also indicate that both exchange rate and inflation
share similar effect on country’s economic growth whereby a unit increase in either
of the variables inversely affect economic growth at different levels of magnitude.
The study findings further indicate that there is double causality between Gross
Domestic Product and Inflation level. This is expected based on the fact that
expansionary monetary policy that may include open market purchase, lower reserve
rate and lending rate may result into price rise for stimulation of economies
especially when experiencing economic downturn. Existing financial stability should
continue to prevail in controlling the levels of inflation in an economy since the
stable economy promises great prospect for long-term investment. However, the
precaution should be observed from having tight monetary policy. The tight
monetary policy may negatively harm business and investment opportunities, thus
resulting into decline in total country’s production.