Complex socio-ecological systems: translating narratives into Future land use and land cover scenarios in the Kilombero Catchment, Tanzania

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dc.creatorProswitz, Katharina
dc.creatorEdward, Mamkwe Claudia
dc.creatorEvers, Mariele
dc.creatorMombo, Felister
dc.creatorMpwaga, Alexander
dc.creatorNäschen, Kristian
dc.creatorSesabo, Jennifer
dc.creatorHöllermann, Britta
dc.date2022-08-26T11:41:45Z
dc.date2022-08-26T11:41:45Z
dc.date2021
dc.date.accessioned2022-10-25T08:50:12Z
dc.date.available2022-10-25T08:50:12Z
dc.descriptionJournal Article
dc.descriptionThe Kilombero wetland in Tanzania is affected by advancing land use and land cover changes (LULCC), where we observe a conflict between development interests and the necessity of conservation measures to maintain the functionalities of the ecosystem. Thus, assessing patterns of LULCC is crucial to foresee potential future developments and to develop sustainable future management strategies. In this study, we use a multi-method scenario approach to assess the spatial implications and underlying driving forces of potential change by (1) developing a System Dynamics Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) to disentangle the underlying socio-economic and ecologic driving forces, (2) deriving a qualitative business-as-usual (BAU) and a conservation scenario from participatory narratives elaborated during a stakeholder workshop, and (3) quantifying the spatial implications of these scenarios with the Land Change Modeler (LCM). Results indicate that under the BAU assumption only 37% of the natural vegetation is expected to persist until 2030 in the wetland. In contrast, strict enforcement of protected areas (conservation scenario) halts further conversion of the wetland. However, both scenarios pinpoint considerable expansions of cropland in the western highlands with potentially serious impacts on catchment-wide hydrological processes. The produced qualitative and quantitative outputs reveal hotspots of possible future change and starting points for advisable further research and management interventions.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttp://www.suaire.sua.ac.tz/handle/123456789/4482
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/89919
dc.languageen
dc.publisherMDPI
dc.subjectconservation
dc.subjectland use and land cover change
dc.subjectTanzania
dc.subjectintensification
dc.subjectsystem dynamics
dc.subjectparticipatory scenario building
dc.subjectTanzania
dc.titleComplex socio-ecological systems: translating narratives into Future land use and land cover scenarios in the Kilombero Catchment, Tanzania
dc.typeArticle

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