Modelling of Flood Flows in Rufiji River Basin, Tanzania
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Abstract
Description
A simulation procedure applied to select a suitable statistical
procedure to model flood flows in Rufiji River basin in Tanzania is presented.
In this paper, a flood frequency procedure refers to the combination of a
probability distribution with a suitable method of parameter estimation. A
predictive ability test based on bias between observed and predicted flows is
used to select the suitable procedure. Based on the results of the simulation, the
most suitable statistical frequency procedures for modelling flood flows for the
homogeneous regions of Rufiji basin seem to be log-Pearson type 3/method of
moments (LP3/MOM) and Pearson type 3/method of probability weighted
moments (P3/PWM). The two procedures gave the lowest bias values for
different return periods and sample sizes considered in the sUidy. The study is
based on the data from 42 sites in the basin
Keywords
Rufiji River, frequency analysis, homogeneous regions, regional homogeneity, graphical test, parent distribution, quantile estimate, statistical distribution