Evaluation of the performance of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating present climate conditions of Tanzania

Simple item page
dc.creatorLuhunga, Philbert
dc.creatorBotai, Joel
dc.creatorKahimba, Frederick C.
dc.date2021-08-03T09:51:03Z
dc.date2021-08-03T09:51:03Z
dc.date2016-06
dc.date.accessioned2022-10-25T08:50:34Z
dc.date.available2022-10-25T08:50:34Z
dc.descriptionJournal article
dc.descriptionRegional climate models (RCMs) are widely used in regional assessment of climate change impacts. However, the reliability of individual models needs to be assessed before using their output for impact assessment. In this study, we evaluate the performance of RCMs from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program (CORDEX) to simulate minimum air temperature (TN), maximum air temperature (TX) and rainfall over Tanzania. Output from four RCMs driven by boundary conditions from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and ERA-Interim data are evaluated against observed data from 22 weather stations. The evaluation is based on determining how well the RCMs reproduce climatological trends, interannual, and annual cycles of TN, TX and rainfall. Statistical measures of model performance that include the bias, root mean square error, correlation and trend analysis are used. It is found that RCMs capture the annual cycle of TN, TX and rainfall well, however underestimate and overestimate the amount of rainfall in March–April–May (MAM) and October–November–December (OND) seasons respectively. Most RCMs reproduce interannual variations of TN, TX and rainfall. The source of uncertainties can be analysed when the same RCM is driven by different GCMs and different RCMs driven by same GCM simulate TN, TX and rainfall differently. It is found that the biases and errors from the RCMs and driving GCMs contribute roughly equally. Overall, the evaluation finds reasonable (although variable) model skill in representing mean climate, interannual variability and temperature trends, suggesting the potential use of CORDEX RCMs in simulating TN, TX and rainfall over Tanzania.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://www.suaire.sua.ac.tz/handle/123456789/3815
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/90366
dc.languageen
dc.publisherResearchGate
dc.subjectCORDEX models for Tanzania
dc.subjectclimate models
dc.subjectclimate conditions
dc.subjectagricultural systems
dc.subjectGlobal Climate Models
dc.subjectRegional climate models
dc.titleEvaluation of the performance of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating present climate conditions of Tanzania
dc.typeArticle

Files

Collections

Sokoine University