| dc.creator |
Lugomela, Charles |
|
| dc.creator |
Lyimo, Thomas J. |
|
| dc.creator |
Namkinga, Lucy A |
|
| dc.creator |
Moyo, Sabrina |
|
| dc.creator |
Goerricke, Ralf |
|
| dc.creator |
Sjöling, Sara |
|
| dc.date |
2016-06-18T18:17:37Z |
|
| dc.date |
2016-06-18T18:17:37Z |
|
| dc.date |
2014-01 |
|
| dc.date.accessioned |
2018-03-27T08:23:06Z |
|
| dc.date.available |
2018-03-27T08:23:06Z |
|
| dc.identifier |
Lugomela, C., Moyo, S., Lyimo, T.J., Namkinga, L.A., Goericke, R. and Sjöling, S., 2015. Co-variations of Cholera with Climatic and Environmental Parameters in Coastal Regions of Tanzania. Western Indian Ocean Journal of Marine Science, 13(1), pp.93-105. |
|
| dc.identifier |
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11810/2589 |
|
| dc.identifier.uri |
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11810/2589 |
|
| dc.description |
The bacterium causing cholera, Vibrio cholerae, is essentially a marine
organism and its ecological dynamics have been linked to oceanographic conditions
and climate. We used autoregressive models with external inputs to identify potential
relationships between the number of cholera cases in the coastal regions of mainland
Tanzania with climatic and environmental indices (maximum air temperature, sea
surface temperature, wind speed and chlorophyll a). Results revealed that, between
2004 and 2010, coastal regions of mainland Tanzania inhabited by approximately
21% of the total population accounted for approximately 50% of the cholera cases and
40% of the total mortality. Significant co-variations were found between seasonally
adjusted cholera cases and coastal ocean chlorophyll a and, to some degree, sea
surface temperature, the outbreaks lagging behind by one to four months. Cholera
cases in Dar es Salaam were also weakly related to the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode
Index, lagging by five months, suggesting that it may be possible to predict cholera
outbreaks for Dar es Salaam this period ahead. The results also suggest that the
severity of cholera in coastal regions can be predicted by ocean conditions and that
longer-term environmental and climate parameters may be used to predict cholera
outbreaks along the coastal regions. |
|
| dc.language |
en |
|
| dc.subject |
Cholera |
|
| dc.subject |
Climate |
|
| dc.subject |
Environment |
|
| dc.subject |
Coastal regions |
|
| dc.subject |
Mainland Tanzania |
|
| dc.title |
Co-variation of Cholera with Climatic and Environmental Parameters in Coastal Regions of Tanzania |
|
| dc.type |
Journal Article, Peer Reviewed |
|