Impacts of climate variability and change on rainfed sorghum and maize: implications for food security policy in Tanzania

Msongaleli, Barnabas M.; Rwehumbiza, Filbert; Tumbo, Siza D.; Kihupi, Nganga

dc.creator	Msongaleli, Barnabas M.
dc.creator	Rwehumbiza, Filbert
dc.creator	Tumbo, Siza D.
dc.creator	Kihupi, Nganga
dc.date	2021-08-31T07:26:41Z
dc.date	2021-08-31T07:26:41Z
dc.date	2015
dc.date.accessioned	2022-10-20T12:01:05Z
dc.date.available	2022-10-20T12:01:05Z
dc.identifier	Msongaleli, B. M., Rwehumbiza, F., Tumbo, S. D., & Kihupi, N. (2015). Impacts of climate variability and change on rainfed sorghum and maize: implications for food security policy in Tanzania. Journal of Agricultural Science, 7(5).
dc.identifier	DOI:10.5539/jas.v7n5p124
dc.identifier	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12661/3301
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12661/3301
dc.description	Full text article. Also available at https://doi.org/10.5539/jas.v7n5p124
dc.description	Concern about food security has increased because of a changing climate, which poses a great threat to food crop productivity. Climate change projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and crop models were used to investigate the impacts of climate change on rain-fed cereal production. Calibrated and evaluated crop models simulated maize and sorghum yields over time periods and scenarios across central zone Tanzania with and without adaptation. Simulation outputs without adaptation showed predominant decrease and increase in maize and sorghum yields, respectively. The results showed that maize yields were predicted to decline between 1% and 25% across periods, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and global circulation models (GCMs). However, sorghum yields were on average predicted to increase between 5% and 21%. Overall when adaptation is incorporated toward mid-century, yields are projected to increase for both crops. The yield projections variation between cereal crops highlights the importance of location and crop specific climate change impact assessments. Despite the uncertainties in predicting the impacts of climate change on rainfed crops, especially on cereals (maize and sorghum) which are important staple food crops in semi-arid Tanzania, the findings of this study enable policy makers to develop plans aimed at sustainable food security. In conclusion, the results demonstrate the presumption that sorghum productivity stands a better chance than maize under prospects of negative impacts from climate change in central zone Tanzania.
dc.language	en
dc.publisher	Canadian Center of Science and Education
dc.subject	Agronomic adaptation
dc.subject	Cereals
dc.subject	Climate change
dc.subject	Policy
dc.subject	Simulation modeling
dc.subject	Uncertainty
dc.title	Impacts of climate variability and change on rainfed sorghum and maize: implications for food security policy in Tanzania
dc.type	Article