Forecasting hydro-power generation using ARIMA model: a case of Mtera dam in Tanzania

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dc.creatorMnguu, Elihuruma Eliufoo
dc.date2021-02-11T16:27:39Z
dc.date2021-02-11T16:27:39Z
dc.date2020
dc.date.accessioned2022-10-20T13:46:58Z
dc.date.available2022-10-20T13:46:58Z
dc.descriptionDissertation (MSc Information System)
dc.descriptionElectricity cannot be stored efficiently in the grid, resulting in a need for demand and supply to be in balance. The Transmission System Operator operates a real-time electricity market to acquire extra supply or load. Traditionally Presently, the power demand is growing fast every day, which need more resources and different grid constructions. Tanzania is one of the developing countries which needs to acquire and make enough sources, must achieve load cracking to accomplish stability of the power system. This study aims to achieve accurate, real-time and interpretable forecasting of the electricity generation. This study identifies the best fit time series model for forecasting electricity generation in Tanzania. This underpins the development of a time series model for forecasting electricity generation. Several time series models including SARIMA, SVM and ANN were fitted to the data, and it emerged that the most adequate model for the data was ARIMA. The nonlinear relation of electric net power generation is explored by historical monthly recorded data, this relation can help Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited to predict net electric generation for the next month. Experimental results show that our proposed electric generation forecasting method based on ARIMA can get a suitable prediction model and achieve high predicted precision, which is in accordance with the real data in the record. There will be no increases in electricity generation in the Mtera dam over the next 2 years. It is recommended that TANESCO should use the model and its forecasted figures in its operational and planning activities.
dc.identifierMnguu, E. E. (2020). Forecasting hydro-power generation using ARIMA model: a case of Mtera dam in Tanzania (Dissertation) The University of Dodoma, Dodoma.
dc.identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12661/2751
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12661/2751
dc.languageen
dc.publisherThe University of Dodoma
dc.subjectElectricity
dc.subjectTransmission System Operator
dc.subjectGrid
dc.subjectDeveloping countries
dc.subjectTanzania
dc.subjectPower system
dc.subjectARIMA
dc.subjectTanzania Electric Supply Company Limited
dc.subjectTANESCO
dc.subjectElectric generation
dc.subjectHydro-power
dc.subjectHydro-power generation
dc.subjectARIMA model
dc.titleForecasting hydro-power generation using ARIMA model: a case of Mtera dam in Tanzania
dc.typeDissertation

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